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To achieve the target of 9 million new energy vehicles as outlined in the Work Plan for the Steady Growth of China's Automobile Industry (2023-2024), it is necessary to accomplish a sales volume of 2.722 million new energy vehicles within a three-month period from October to December. –
1)Sales of EVs are expected to maintain steady growth in November.
- Demand: In order to achieve the sales targets in the third and fourth quarters, auto enterprise have implemented various incentives such as price reductions and subsidies since October, aiming to attract customer.
- Supply: With the influence of "peak season", numerous new models EV have entered into market, and in September, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced 398 new EV models.
- Policy: In October, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Road motor vehicle production enterprises and products", exempting 72 models of EV’s vehicle and vessel tax or purchase tax. Additionally, regions like Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu have issued three-year plans for promoting EV in rural areas. On October 13th, Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission issued "Shenzhen EV Charging and Replacement Facilities Management Measures".
2) The energy storage market is expected to remain in an active destocking stage during November.
- It is anticipated that by Q4 2023, the sale within the energy storage industry would grow slowly due to several factors:
- Firstly, battery demand ease caused by delayed grid connections for US market's energy storage projects;
- Secondly, fluctuations in lithium carbonate/battery cell prices leads the suspending procurement for the buyers ;
- Thirdly, deceleration in wind installations cause decreased demand for energy storage solutions;
- Lastly home energy storage savings demand increase slowly.
3) Lithium battery production is expected to decline by approximately 8.6% in November. According to the Dadong Times survey data from Dadong Times,the battery production in November 2023 would reach 73.12GWh, showing a decrease of around 8.6% compared to October's production of 80.0GWh. Lithium battery enterprise A - 37GWh, Lithium battery enterprise B - 14.3GWh, and Lithium battery enterprise C row - 5.6GWh.
Dadong Times research reveals that major lithium battery raw material enterprises have experienced certain growth in their production capacity; however, starting from November, there has been entering a seasonal reduction stage in the Qinghai region resulting in declining production levels. On the other hand, supply from Jiangxi, Shandong, and Sichuan regions has shown varying degrees of increase with some previously reduced-production enterprises in Jiangxi announcing their resumption of work and entering into a phase of capacity expansion. Overall expectations indicate that the battery raw materials industry’s rate of operation is approximately 73%.
4) The price trend for lithium carbonate remains weak over an extended period.
As of October 24th, the price range for battery-grade lithium carbonate was between ¥16.4-176k/ton while industrial grade lithium carbonate price ranged between ¥15.7-165k/ton; both categories continued to experience slight downward trends.
Demand: the ongoing strikes at Ford, General Motors, and Strangis automobile companies in the United States since September have not yet been resolved. This poor production in battery cells, electrolytes, cathode materials, etc. Industry, indicating a weakened procurement demand for the lithium salt market in the future.
Supply: from November to December, there has been an increase in winter production capacity release rate due to continuous updates in production technology at salt lake sites. Despite this boost in demand and supply dynamics, fundamentals still indicate an oversupply situation. Therefore, it is difficult to reverse the long-term weak trend of the lithium carbonate market.
Cost: recent pricing negotiations for Australian spodumene are expected to be settled by January with potential changes affecting lithium carbonate costs. The anticipated weakening of cost support combined with downgrades of major lithium producers and news regarding reduced industry chain profits and low early October sales data for new energy vehicles continue to fuel bearish sentiment within the market.
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